The Future of European Heat Waves

While we know that global warming impacts various regions differently—some experiencing drastic temperature increases while others do not—Europe stands out as the fastest-warming continent. Over the past four decades, it has warmed at twice the rate of the global average, and reports suggest this trend is likely to persist for years to come.

So, what level of global warming are we on track to reach? As discussed in a prior article, if current rates continue, we could see a rise of 3°C in global temperatures. This increase could result in European summer temperatures soaring by as much as 6°C.

This leads us to the critical question: how deadly will these conditions be? To answer this, we must consider wet bulb temperatures.

Wet bulb temperatures differ from traditional dry bulb temperatures commonly used in weather forecasting. The dry bulb temperature is akin to the reading on a standard thermometer, while the wet bulb temperature accounts for evaporative cooling, providing a more accurate representation of heat stress. In low-humidity conditions, humans can tolerate extreme heat (up to 60°C) because sweat evaporates effectively, cooling the body. However, at 35°C with high humidity, evaporative cooling fails, posing lethal risks.

Research indicates that wet bulb temperatures exceeding 35°C for prolonged periods can be fatal to even healthy individuals. This threshold equates to a dry bulb temperature of 45°C at 50% humidity. Disturbingly, recent studies suggest that even a wet bulb temperature of 31.5°C can be hazardous.

Currently, wet bulb temperatures globally are alarmingly higher than previously predicted, likely due to more severe global warming than anticipated, which increases ambient temperatures and intensifies the water cycle, resulting in higher humidity levels in certain areas.

Recently, Italy recorded a wet bulb temperature of 30°C for several hours, with many regions across Europe approaching similar levels. Such conditions bring Europe perilously close to being uninhabitable.

Looking Ahead: A Disturbing Trend

Research indicates that heatwaves like the current one are expected to become commonplace in Europe as stabilizing weather systems weaken. For each degree of global warming, wet bulb temperatures in tropical regions will rise, while subtropical and temperate areas—including Europe—will likely experience even greater increases.

This means Europe may soon endure regular heatwaves that exceed human tolerance, potentially resulting in hundreds of thousands of heat-related fatalities annually.

However, this alarming trend isn't limited to Europe. Approximately 40% of the global population currently resides in areas that will soon face deadly wet bulb temperatures. This situation will impact developing nations as well as affluent ones, such as the United States and Europe.

In essence, Cerberus serves as a grim preview of what lies ahead—not just for Europe, but for the entire planet. Yet, we still have a window of opportunity to combat climate change. By phasing out coal, reducing fossil fuel investments, and ramping up renewable energy initiatives, we can strive to limit global warming to 1.5°C and protect countless lives. The pressing question remains: will we take action in time?

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Originally published on Planet Earth & Beyond

Source: NOAA, UN News, Euro News, Climate.gov, Science.org, Independent, The Guardian, PSU, Earth Sky, Greenly, CNN, Meteologix

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