Chapter 1: The Surfside Tragedy

The catastrophic failure of the Champlain Towers in Surfside, Florida, has prompted significant concern regarding the potential influence of climate change on such disasters. With over 140 individuals unaccounted for or deceased due to this incident, it raises critical questions about the safety of numerous similar structures along the coast, which accommodate tens of thousands of residents. Various elements may have contributed to the collapse, such as ground subsidence and saltwater inundation in the parking garage. Initial assessments suggest that a comprehensive understanding of the situation could take years. Nevertheless, the event already has important ramifications for climate change policy:

1. Ignoring Early Warnings: Often, alerts about impending disasters are disregarded until it’s too late. A notable example is the 1977 novel "Condominium," which depicted a scenario strikingly similar to the Surfside collapse. Zillow predicted in 2016 that by 2100, one in eight Florida homes could be submerged underwater. An article in The Guardian in 2019 highlighted the reluctance of Florida real estate buyers to accept the reality of rising sea levels: “Humans usually react to immediate threats and financial repercussions — coastal properties in Florida might soon serve as a harsh reminder.” An NPR report in 2017 indicated that investors in coastal properties showed minimal concern regarding climate change.
2. Climate Change as a Risk Amplifier: Climate change is recognized as a multiplier of risks, contributing to greater vulnerability, even if it isn't the sole cause of a specific event. An architecture professor noted that climate change can exacerbate already challenging living conditions near the ocean. Instances of flooding in the building’s garage were frequent, and rising sea levels lead to saltwater intrusion, which can corrode structures. Concrete’s porous nature allows saltwater to infiltrate, posing a threat to the steel reinforcements within.
3. Delayed Understanding of Climate Effects: The intricacies of the climate system can obscure our understanding of its impacts until after they manifest. The effects of rising sea levels and saltwater on building foundations may require extensive analysis over time. Similarly, scientists are still unraveling how changes in ocean temperatures and currents contributed to extreme weather events, such as the heat wave in the Pacific Northwest and the Polar Vortex that caused severe cold in Texas.
4. Human Costs vs. Economic Impacts: The human toll of climate-related disasters often overshadows any economic analysis. In 2018, William Nordhaus received a Nobel Prize for his work on climate change economics, which advocated for gradual policy shifts — a stance criticized for its limitations. A Federal Reserve official previously noted that disasters can paradoxically yield economic boosts due to the influx of insurance and public funding. However, this perspective overlooks the profound human costs, including loss of life and community destruction, which can lead to mass migrations and social turmoil. The long-term economic consequences of displacement due to climate events are challenging to quantify and remain largely unrecognized.
5. Tendency to Postpone Resilience Investments: It's natural for individuals to underestimate abstract risks until they materialize. This behavior is heightened when problems escalate non-linearly. Studies indicate that investing $1 in disaster-resistant building measures can prevent $11 in future costs. Unfortunately, the Surfside Condo Board could not reach consensus on a necessary $15 million repair assessment, which had been identified years prior.
6. Insurers and Lenders Are Not Effective Regulators: Recent efforts have aimed to enhance the financial sector's awareness of climate risks and improve transparency for investors. Yet, the media coverage surrounding the Surfside incident has largely overlooked the potential accountability of financial institutions. The insurance sector, particularly vulnerable to unforeseen risk surges, may adjust premiums post-disaster, or even withdraw altogether, as seen in Florida following substantial hurricane losses.
7. Legal Requirements and Their Limitations: Even with legal stipulations for periodic inspections, the enforcement often falls short. Regulations requiring condominium associations to maintain reserve funds for upkeep have proven ineffective due to loopholes. The Champlain Towers, which collapsed, had recognized $15 million in repairs needed four years prior but had less than $1 million in reserve, leading to board member resignations over disagreements on assessments. Governor Ron DeSantis has suggested that the incident may be an isolated event and has not committed to increasing oversight of high-rise buildings, despite calls for reviews from various authorities.
8. Legal Ramifications of Climate Disasters: Following the collapse, owners of units in the Champlain Towers South initiated a class-action lawsuit against the condo association for failing to protect lives and property. Numerous climate-related lawsuits have been filed across the U.S., primarily against major greenhouse gas emitters, indicating that litigation may drive climate action significantly.

As time progresses and the emotional weight of the condo collapse diminishes, discussions are likely to evolve towards more technical aspects, such as improving inspection protocols and flood control systems. I hope the families and friends of the victims will ensure that the profound impact of their loss remains a central theme in these discussions. Personally, this tragedy resonates with me, as my parents owned a unit in a comparable building nearby for many years. This personal connection underscores the often superficial nature of climate change policy debates. As noted by author Kim Stanley Robinson:

“Parochial concerns over quarterly returns fade to insignificance when you take the long view and see us teetering on the edge of causing a mass-extinction event that would hammer all future living creatures. What is the value of coral reefs? Of coastal communities? Of civilization as we know it? Or temperatures within the limits of human survivability?”

The first video, "Lessons from Surfside," delves into the implications of the condo collapse on climate policy and disaster preparedness.

Chapter 2: Examining the Causes

The second video, "Why did the Surfside Condo Collapse?" provides an in-depth analysis of the factors leading to the Miami building collapse, highlighting the role of climate change.