generate a compelling analysis of potential alien threats to Earth
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Chapter 1: The Alien Threat
Recent research proposes that there may be four aggressive civilizations within the Milky Way, poised to invade our planet. However, the likelihood of such an attack is significantly lower—by a factor of one hundred—than the risk of humanity facing extinction due to a colossal asteroid impact.
[Photo Stefan Keller from Pixabay]
The mind behind this intriguing hypothesis is Alberto Caballero, a doctoral candidate at the University of Vigo in Spain, specializing in international conflicts rather than astrophysics. His academic background inspired him to engage in a thought experiment regarding the potential for extraterrestrial civilizations to exhibit aggressive tendencies similar to those of humans.
Section 1.1: The Basis of the Study
Caballero's initial inquiry revolved around the question: if extraterrestrial life exists, how many of these civilizations might share humanity's inclination for hostility? He elaborated on his findings in a paper available on the arXiv Science Preprints Archive, although it has yet to undergo peer review. Notably, Caballero's analysis suggests that statistical evidence points to four hostile civilizations in our galaxy that, if equipped with the necessary technology, could attempt to invade Earth.
Subsection 1.1.1: Historical Context of Human Conflict
To support his thesis, Caballero examined data on armed conflicts from 1950 to 2022. Over this span, armed conflict involved 51 nations out of the 195 recognized today. Notably, the United States was involved in 14 of these conflicts.
Caballero then assessed the probability of a nation initiating war based on its military spending relative to global arms expenditures. The United States again emerged at the forefront, accounting for 38% of total military expenditure during the reviewed periods.
[Photo ELG21 from Pixabay]
Section 1.2: Projecting Human Behavior into Space
Next, Caballero calculated the likelihood of human-led invasions of extraterrestrial civilizations, yielding a figure of 0.028%. This percentage serves as an indicator of humanity's current propensity to engage in interstellar conflicts.
Building on this foundation, Caballero utilized the Kardashev scale to project the timeline for humanity achieving interstellar travel. By estimating energy consumption, he concluded that we are approximately 259 years away from mastering this capability. Assuming a gradual decline in humanity's aggressive tendencies, he posited that the risk of future generations engaging in space warfare drops to 0.0014%.
Chapter 2: Assessing Alien Aggression
Caballero also contemplated the potential for aggression among other civilizations in our galaxy. Relying on SETI’s 2012 estimates, he suggested that around 15,000 extraterrestrial civilizations could exist in the Milky Way. If these civilizations exhibited similar aggressive behaviors as humans, approximately four of them might be deemed hostile.
Importantly, if a Type 1 civilization according to the Kardashev scale—one capable of interstellar travel—were to exist, the probability of an encounter leading to conflict would decrease to below one.
Caballero concluded, “The likelihood of an alien civilization attacking us is significantly lower than the chance of a catastrophic asteroid impact hitting Earth.” This statement encapsulates the essence of his thought experiment.
Despite the intriguing nature of Caballero's analysis, it faces scrutiny on several fronts. Primarily, the research relies on a relatively brief period of data—just seventy years—and is founded on various speculative assumptions, such as the projection that alien aggressiveness would mirror that of humanity. When considering the vastness of space and the distances involved, the risk of conflict with an alien civilization becomes almost negligible.
Source: arXiv
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